| Bet | Type | Target | Move | Days | Polymarket | Vol-Adj. | MC (t) | Options | Edge (H) ▼ | Edge (MC) | Edge (Opt) | Arb | Volume |
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Edge = Probability estimate / Polymarket YES price. Values >1.3× suggest the market is underpricing the bet (potential buy). Values <0.75× suggest overpricing (potential sell or avoid).
Arb = Hedged = options market diverges from PM AND hedge costs < 60% of edge profit (real hedged arb via IBIT spreads). Directional = options edge ≥15% but hedge costs too high. Edge = historical models show ≥30% edge (directional PM only).
Touch = bet resolves if price ever hits target (uses daily highs/lows). Terminal = bet resolves on closing price at expiry.
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